Last month I read Mark Pauly's Health Reform without Side Effects, a short book analyzing our health care system. As a recipient of generous employer provided health insurance for most of my adult life, I found Pauly's discussion of the inefficiencies of the individual insurance market the most illuminating section of the book. The treatment of coverage for high risk individuals was also careful, but it led me to realize that health insurance policies contain a hidden component which I have not yet seen analyzed and did not include in my prior post on health insurance. In addition to claims administration, benefit coupons, and insurance against catastrophic illness, insurers are required to include, as part of their insurance plans, an option for the insured to purchase insurance at a later date at a (strike) price that does not take into account the individual's health history subsequent to acquisition of the option. It would be interesting to see how this option would be priced if it were unbundled from the rest of the health care plan.
If I buy healthcare insurance while I am in good health, and then have a heart attack, I feel betrayed if my insurance premiums rise precipitously the subsequent year. Thus I expect my yearly insurance premium to pay both for protection against any catastrophic illness in the policy year and for an option to purchase insurance in subsequent years at rates set for healthy adults of my age. If this option feature of insurance were made explicit, more carefully defined, and separated from the rest of the policy, people could decide exactly what such an option is worth. Insurers might then offer `points' on insurance like bankers do on mortgages. Paying a certain number of points in advance, one can lower the nominal interest rate on a mortgage. Insurers could sell points that allowed one to buy insurance at rates set for lower risk individuals. What purpose could such points serve since insurers would have no incentive to sell points at a lower cost than the difference between the premiums for the buyer's actual risk level and the desired lower risk level? Points introduce the possibility that an entity other than the insurer could sell the option contracts. Options would essentially become options to purchase points. Assuming competition kept point costs fairly uniform, sellers could offer `universal' options which could be exercised at many large insurers. An immediate benefit of such an unbundled system would be increased portability of insurance. If an employer's insurance plan provided an explicit option, then a high risk employee who wished to leave his job need not worry about a subsequent dramatic increase in insurance costs. He would simply exercise his option at his new place of employment (or in the less efficient individual insurance market).
Unbundling of options might lower their cost. If you wish to purchase an option today which cannot be exercised for ten years, then the seller of the option will factor in ten years of returns on investing the option premium when pricing the option. (Of course you must also consider your loss of use of the funds for ten years in valuing the purchase.) In buying insurance, we know we should rationally only purchase insurance for catastrophic events unless our insurance is subsidized. If you can afford to pay 2 years of the higher insurance premium charged to high risk individuals, perhaps you would only wish to purchase options which cannot be exercised until three years after the date of purchase, decreasing their cost further.
None of the potential savings consequent to the decoupling of options from insurance plans is large enough to offset the price inflation associated with third party payment of basic medical services, but the concept introduces numerous ways to decrease cost and increase flexibility.
Sunday, December 12, 2010
Sunday, December 5, 2010
Leroux and Global Warming
For a change of pace I have added Marcel Leroux's Global Warming - Myth Or Reality? to my bedtime reading. I don't recall why I chose this particular climate book from the shelf, but it is published by Springer, a publishing house respected by most mathematicians. In general it is difficult for an outsider to establish the reliability of a putative expert in a distant field. In fields in which I have some expertise, I frequently see the media promote extremely marginal scientists as expert spokesmen. Given the extent to which climatology appears to foster charlatanism, I am wary of all authors in the field.
I was especially eager to read Leroux's treatment of climate modelling. I have already written on why mathematicians are wary of the computer simulations responsible for the alarmist gloom and doom scenarios which lead so many people to advocate wrecking the world economy, abandoning democracy if necessary, in order to limit CO_2 output. My post on this subject dealt only with those universal features of the simulations that one could address without delving into the details of the models. I hope Leroux will shed more light on the nuts and bolts of the models.
Leroux's treatment of models (Chapter 7 of his book) is tinged with an antipathy to models qua models, which I consider misplaced. My objections are simply to the abuse of models. Leroux does provide us with more information about the models and their defects, although I assume that details such as grid sizes change monthly or yearly. I will rephrase and repackage Leroux's more coherent criticisms into a more mathematical framework.
Computer simulations of climate phenomena require dividing the atmosphere into a collection of volumes known as cells and assigning numerical data to each cell representing 'average' climate data for that cell for some time interval. At the time Leroux was writing, typical cell size ranged from hundreds to tens of thousands of cubic kilometers. He does not mention the typical time interval involved. Obviously, the smaller the cell and time step, the more reasonable is approximation of the climate within by some average. Ever increasing computer power is the only inherent limit on the number and therefore the size of the cells. Ideally, we would like to start with some initial approximate climate state, and compute the approximate evolution of the system by numerically approximating the solutions to the complex nonlinear fluid dynamics and other equations governing the system. Any phenomena which take place at smaller time or space scales than the time intervals or cells of our simulation cannot be modelled. Of course one can model such phenomena with a simulation adapted to the given phenomenon. Thus one could not use a simulation designed to model a century of global climate evolution to model the path of a hurricane. Instead, one uses a model adapted to the time and space scale of the hurricane, and corrects the simulation with new information several times a day.
In addition to errors arising from cell size and absence of real world initial data, climate evolution includes too many interactions to include in a realistic deterministic model. For example, the quantity of the main greenhouse gas, water vapor, depends on temperature, pressure, particulate matter, surface water, plant respiration, etc. These do not all admit simple modelling with numerical partial differential equations. Those features which are too complex for current deterministic models are ignored (the most honest path) or added into simulations by ad hoc mechanisms. These latter admit fine tuning to reach any desired conclusion.
Another source of error in simulations is the fact that the earth is not a closed system. Time varying solar radiation is the fundamental driver of our climate, but I am unaware of the existence of climate models that include realistic simulations of the complex dynamics of the sun's nuclear reactions.
Leroux appears to be bothered by the deterministic attitude of the climate modellers, a concern which I do not share. It seems reasonable to me that the extremely complex large scale dynamics of our climate stem result from small scale fundamental physical and chemical processes. Nonetheless, it is clear that since current climate models that are adapted to short time predictions are only crudely accurate for a few days, long term predictions have no value.
The more of Leroux I read, the less reliable he appears. His logic is generally quite poor. He frequently points out some weakness in the arguments of proponents of anthropogenic global warming, and then immediately concludes that CO_2 does not cause global warming, when, in fact, he has only countered an argument in support not actually presented an argument against. He also has a worrisome single factor explanation for most features of our climate. All phenomena of interest can be explained (according to Leroux) by his contribution to climatology: mobile polar highs. I have checked out a few books on atmospheric physics to make myself somewhat better able to analyze his claims. From my currently inexpert position, many of his assertions seem to be the atmospheric equivalent to the assertion that water runs down a mountain into a valley because the mountain is higher than the valley, and not because the valley is lower than the mountain. Such a distinction makes no sense to me; so, I need to learn more. Fortunately climate books are much lighter reading than math books, and hence can be read before bed without stimulating the brain enough to interfere with sleep.
I was especially eager to read Leroux's treatment of climate modelling. I have already written on why mathematicians are wary of the computer simulations responsible for the alarmist gloom and doom scenarios which lead so many people to advocate wrecking the world economy, abandoning democracy if necessary, in order to limit CO_2 output. My post on this subject dealt only with those universal features of the simulations that one could address without delving into the details of the models. I hope Leroux will shed more light on the nuts and bolts of the models.
Leroux's treatment of models (Chapter 7 of his book) is tinged with an antipathy to models qua models, which I consider misplaced. My objections are simply to the abuse of models. Leroux does provide us with more information about the models and their defects, although I assume that details such as grid sizes change monthly or yearly. I will rephrase and repackage Leroux's more coherent criticisms into a more mathematical framework.
Computer simulations of climate phenomena require dividing the atmosphere into a collection of volumes known as cells and assigning numerical data to each cell representing 'average' climate data for that cell for some time interval. At the time Leroux was writing, typical cell size ranged from hundreds to tens of thousands of cubic kilometers. He does not mention the typical time interval involved. Obviously, the smaller the cell and time step, the more reasonable is approximation of the climate within by some average. Ever increasing computer power is the only inherent limit on the number and therefore the size of the cells. Ideally, we would like to start with some initial approximate climate state, and compute the approximate evolution of the system by numerically approximating the solutions to the complex nonlinear fluid dynamics and other equations governing the system. Any phenomena which take place at smaller time or space scales than the time intervals or cells of our simulation cannot be modelled. Of course one can model such phenomena with a simulation adapted to the given phenomenon. Thus one could not use a simulation designed to model a century of global climate evolution to model the path of a hurricane. Instead, one uses a model adapted to the time and space scale of the hurricane, and corrects the simulation with new information several times a day.
In addition to errors arising from cell size and absence of real world initial data, climate evolution includes too many interactions to include in a realistic deterministic model. For example, the quantity of the main greenhouse gas, water vapor, depends on temperature, pressure, particulate matter, surface water, plant respiration, etc. These do not all admit simple modelling with numerical partial differential equations. Those features which are too complex for current deterministic models are ignored (the most honest path) or added into simulations by ad hoc mechanisms. These latter admit fine tuning to reach any desired conclusion.
Another source of error in simulations is the fact that the earth is not a closed system. Time varying solar radiation is the fundamental driver of our climate, but I am unaware of the existence of climate models that include realistic simulations of the complex dynamics of the sun's nuclear reactions.
Leroux appears to be bothered by the deterministic attitude of the climate modellers, a concern which I do not share. It seems reasonable to me that the extremely complex large scale dynamics of our climate stem result from small scale fundamental physical and chemical processes. Nonetheless, it is clear that since current climate models that are adapted to short time predictions are only crudely accurate for a few days, long term predictions have no value.
The more of Leroux I read, the less reliable he appears. His logic is generally quite poor. He frequently points out some weakness in the arguments of proponents of anthropogenic global warming, and then immediately concludes that CO_2 does not cause global warming, when, in fact, he has only countered an argument in support not actually presented an argument against. He also has a worrisome single factor explanation for most features of our climate. All phenomena of interest can be explained (according to Leroux) by his contribution to climatology: mobile polar highs. I have checked out a few books on atmospheric physics to make myself somewhat better able to analyze his claims. From my currently inexpert position, many of his assertions seem to be the atmospheric equivalent to the assertion that water runs down a mountain into a valley because the mountain is higher than the valley, and not because the valley is lower than the mountain. Such a distinction makes no sense to me; so, I need to learn more. Fortunately climate books are much lighter reading than math books, and hence can be read before bed without stimulating the brain enough to interfere with sleep.
Sunday, November 7, 2010
Liberal Outpost
Well, we won nationally but were thumped locally. After the election returns were in, I remembered one of the reasons I had been inactive in local politics in previous years: it is hard to feel like you can make a difference in such an extremely Democratic district. There did not seem to be much return on months of canvassing. We did, however, do better than we have in any year since 1994. It will be interesting to see if the bump outlasts the Obama presidency. If the Democrats stay this far to the left, then perhaps the local GOP can win some elections.
This is the first canvass free/conference free weekend in months. It feels great. I will have my week's lectures written by Sunday evening. I expect a pop in math output too. Clearly politics do not mix brilliantly with research - too distracting.
Amazingly I have heard nothing about the election in the faculty lounge for months. Perhaps my colleagues simply preferred not to think about the approaching wave. Wednesday I heard exactly zero comments about the election at work.
In one last attempt to help the candidates, I volunteered to electioneer for 4 hours on Tuesday, after my various University commitments were fulfilled. I was sent to pass out GOP literature at a polling site uncomfortably close to campus. I saw one overt Republican all evening. I arrived hours before the evening rush, too early for electioneering. I was not joined by other electioneers for over an hour. All the others represented liberal groups. Most were pleasant, and perhaps amused at my quixotic efforts. One lady, however, responded to my pleasantries with the revealing question: ''How can someone be a Republican?" I told her that it was difficult for anyone who understood economics or who objected to the government dictating the minutiae of his life to to be otherwise. She then launched on 'the Party of No' and castigated the GOP for opposing the healthcare bill. The discussion reminded me of grad school days. When I pointed to specific features of the bill I found objectionable (although I am opposed in principle to more or less the whole package) she would more often than not deny the existence of the offending feature. Clearly ignorance and denial are essential features for maintaining the liberal belief system.
Unfortunately, her belief system triumphed over mine in the local elections that night.
This is the first canvass free/conference free weekend in months. It feels great. I will have my week's lectures written by Sunday evening. I expect a pop in math output too. Clearly politics do not mix brilliantly with research - too distracting.
Amazingly I have heard nothing about the election in the faculty lounge for months. Perhaps my colleagues simply preferred not to think about the approaching wave. Wednesday I heard exactly zero comments about the election at work.
In one last attempt to help the candidates, I volunteered to electioneer for 4 hours on Tuesday, after my various University commitments were fulfilled. I was sent to pass out GOP literature at a polling site uncomfortably close to campus. I saw one overt Republican all evening. I arrived hours before the evening rush, too early for electioneering. I was not joined by other electioneers for over an hour. All the others represented liberal groups. Most were pleasant, and perhaps amused at my quixotic efforts. One lady, however, responded to my pleasantries with the revealing question: ''How can someone be a Republican?" I told her that it was difficult for anyone who understood economics or who objected to the government dictating the minutiae of his life to to be otherwise. She then launched on 'the Party of No' and castigated the GOP for opposing the healthcare bill. The discussion reminded me of grad school days. When I pointed to specific features of the bill I found objectionable (although I am opposed in principle to more or less the whole package) she would more often than not deny the existence of the offending feature. Clearly ignorance and denial are essential features for maintaining the liberal belief system.
Unfortunately, her belief system triumphed over mine in the local elections that night.
Sunday, October 31, 2010
Fraud in the Voting Booth?
My county, like so many Democratic counties, has a long history of voting irregularities. It is hard to guess what impact this has on elections since the Democrats massively outnumber the Republicans anyway. This is my first year experiencing this first hand, and I am not sure how to interpret what I see.
Last weekend was the end of canvassing walks. This weekend I decided to substitute phone banking for walking. I am not overly fond of the phone and would rather contribute in most any other way to retiring the Democrats this election, but clearly phoning voters and urging them to the polls was the way to contribute yesterday. I settled in at GOP HQ with a bounded but seemingly infinite list of phone numbers to call. Shortly after I began calling to urge voters to the polls, a distraught woman dashed into headquarters. She was a designated GOP poll observer at the nearby polling site (early voting). She had arrived a quarter of an hour before the legal opening of the polls to find voters already filling the voting booths marking their ballots. When she identified herself and asked what was going on, the Democratic election officials barred her from the polling place. Happy for a reason to leave my phone, I trotted up the hill to the polling site and asked the GOP electioneers whether things were proceeding appropriately. They were (appropriately) barred from the actual polling site, but were able to confirm that the polls had opened early. I returned to HQ and phoned the county GOP chair to have him file a complaint.
Was anything wrong actually taking place? I don't know. Election officials may have decided to open early to accommodate the long lines of voters waiting to cast their votes. On the other hand, they may have opened early in order to open before the GOP observers and judges were in place. Perhaps ballots sans voters were fed into the machine before the GOP witnesses arrived. Perhaps not, but years of Democrats cheating at the ballot box makes a man paranoid. I have not yet heard the outcome of our chairman's complaint.
I returned to my phone and my finite but large list of GOP voters. I have learned on my walks not to identify myself as a GOP volunteer after hearing one time too many, ''Which ones are they, the Republicans or Democrats?" I now identify myself as an X County Republican volunteer. A few score calls later, the X County GOP secretary arrived at HQ. I had a bone to pick with her. Earlier that week I committed a cardinal error of life in our modern world; I sent her an email with my analysis of the vote numbers we had seen so far and their implications for our candidate (better than other people believed). Included in the email was a sarcastic comment about one of our underperforming candidates. The secretary liked the analysis and emailed it to the entire X County GOP, all the candidates, and our district officers too. Perhaps she emailed it to the WSJ too, but I haven't checked.
I was too amused to be really annoyed, but I did have to ask what the underperforming candidate said. Apparently he was not pleased, but he has a good sense of humor, and I am sure he will find it funny (but perhaps not for several weeks). I asked the secretary, tongue in cheek, if she was trying to get me kicked out of another GOP organization.
If you are a Republican (and a U.S. citizen and registered voter) and haven't voted yet, get out and vote Tuesday. If you are a Democrat, spend Tuesday curled up with a good economics text. If you are a visitor from Europe, Asia, Australia, or Africa, I am not sure why you read my blog entries on local politics, but hello, glad to have you here.
Last weekend was the end of canvassing walks. This weekend I decided to substitute phone banking for walking. I am not overly fond of the phone and would rather contribute in most any other way to retiring the Democrats this election, but clearly phoning voters and urging them to the polls was the way to contribute yesterday. I settled in at GOP HQ with a bounded but seemingly infinite list of phone numbers to call. Shortly after I began calling to urge voters to the polls, a distraught woman dashed into headquarters. She was a designated GOP poll observer at the nearby polling site (early voting). She had arrived a quarter of an hour before the legal opening of the polls to find voters already filling the voting booths marking their ballots. When she identified herself and asked what was going on, the Democratic election officials barred her from the polling place. Happy for a reason to leave my phone, I trotted up the hill to the polling site and asked the GOP electioneers whether things were proceeding appropriately. They were (appropriately) barred from the actual polling site, but were able to confirm that the polls had opened early. I returned to HQ and phoned the county GOP chair to have him file a complaint.
Was anything wrong actually taking place? I don't know. Election officials may have decided to open early to accommodate the long lines of voters waiting to cast their votes. On the other hand, they may have opened early in order to open before the GOP observers and judges were in place. Perhaps ballots sans voters were fed into the machine before the GOP witnesses arrived. Perhaps not, but years of Democrats cheating at the ballot box makes a man paranoid. I have not yet heard the outcome of our chairman's complaint.
I returned to my phone and my finite but large list of GOP voters. I have learned on my walks not to identify myself as a GOP volunteer after hearing one time too many, ''Which ones are they, the Republicans or Democrats?" I now identify myself as an X County Republican volunteer. A few score calls later, the X County GOP secretary arrived at HQ. I had a bone to pick with her. Earlier that week I committed a cardinal error of life in our modern world; I sent her an email with my analysis of the vote numbers we had seen so far and their implications for our candidate (better than other people believed). Included in the email was a sarcastic comment about one of our underperforming candidates. The secretary liked the analysis and emailed it to the entire X County GOP, all the candidates, and our district officers too. Perhaps she emailed it to the WSJ too, but I haven't checked.
I was too amused to be really annoyed, but I did have to ask what the underperforming candidate said. Apparently he was not pleased, but he has a good sense of humor, and I am sure he will find it funny (but perhaps not for several weeks). I asked the secretary, tongue in cheek, if she was trying to get me kicked out of another GOP organization.
If you are a Republican (and a U.S. citizen and registered voter) and haven't voted yet, get out and vote Tuesday. If you are a Democrat, spend Tuesday curled up with a good economics text. If you are a visitor from Europe, Asia, Australia, or Africa, I am not sure why you read my blog entries on local politics, but hello, glad to have you here.
Sunday, October 24, 2010
Milton Friedman's Twist on Hayek
Milton Friedman's Capitalism and Freedom has succeeded Boaz as my political bedtime reading. In my political readings thus far, I have been impressed and educated by Hayek's careful analysis of socialism, aggravated by Von Mises' sloppy analysis of liberalism, and much provoked to thought by Boaz's modern presentation of libertarian principles and their applications. Friedman, however, has been less exciting. Reading Friedman reminds me of reading Shakespeare and remarking on all the 'cliches'. Perhaps Friedman's impact on our current economic thinking has been so strong that his analysis now seems commonplace. I was, however, struck by an observation in Chapter II: The Role of Government in a Free Society. Friedman notes that government action, unlike market action, imposes conformity. The greater the scope of government action, the more areas in which people are forced to conform. Extending the range of the imposed conformity too far works to undermine social cohesion and generate conflict. This is reminiscent of Hayek's assertion that the massive legislation required to implement socialist economic policy is incompatible with democracy: the vast scope of the legislation makes it exceedingly unlikely that a majority can agree on any economic plan, leading socialist proponents to circumvent the democratic process in order to impose their program. (Of course, our current congressional leadership has obviated this obstacle by the simple expedient of convincing the Democratic majority to vote for enormous bills without actually reading them.) Friedman transfers Hayek's assertion from the House and Senate to the electorate: the greater the number and impact of government intrusions into citizens' lives, the more likely any given individual will be strongly opposed to some aspect of government action, with possible consequent disruption of society.
While I find Friedman's extension of Hayek's assertions intriguing, I have not seen much evidence of consequent social disruption. The Tea Party movement suggests that large numbers of Americans have decided that government intrusion into their lives has indeed exceeded their tolerance. Observe, however, that the response is political rather than social. I am not sure what form social disruption is supposed to take, although visions of rioting and striking French workers come to mind. Of course Europeans accept with little protest dramatically greater government control over their lives than Americans endure. Their history, however, differs from ours; in particular, they have never experienced the degree of individual liberty that Americans have long enjoyed and taken for granted. A great conservative fear at the time of the passage of Obamacare was that Americans could be lured into the same servile attitude towards the government.
When wondering how much government intervention American voters will tolerate, one is led to ask to what extent voters accept government impositions simply because they are advocated by their 'team' (i.e. political party)? In the same vein, as most of us ask as soon as we become politically aware, why are attitudes toward homosexuality, immigration, carbonophobia, class warfare, etc. linked? Presumably people choose their positions on issues based on their party affiliation at least as often as they choose their party affiliation based on their stands on issues. Perhaps the rise of the unaffiliated voter is important to consider in this context. As government reach expands, political parties must take stands on an ever wider variety of issues. Perhaps it is becoming ever harder for many Americans to affiliate with either major party; there are simply too many axes of potential disagreement. Unfortunately, opting out is a poor choice. The unaffiliated have little impact at the primary level; so, they share responsibility - through inaction - for the poor choices we often face in general elections. Once again I am led to appreciate the increased voter participation represented by the rise of the Tea Party movement. If the Tea Partiers are successful in rolling back government overreach (admittedly a long term project), then an amusing consequence could be a rise in voter identification with both parties. When the Republicans and Democrats no longer need to take stands on whether it is better to allow a hip replacement at age 70 instead of state of the art cancer drugs at age 75, it will be easier for voters to find a party with which he has no deal breaking disagreements.
While I find Friedman's extension of Hayek's assertions intriguing, I have not seen much evidence of consequent social disruption. The Tea Party movement suggests that large numbers of Americans have decided that government intrusion into their lives has indeed exceeded their tolerance. Observe, however, that the response is political rather than social. I am not sure what form social disruption is supposed to take, although visions of rioting and striking French workers come to mind. Of course Europeans accept with little protest dramatically greater government control over their lives than Americans endure. Their history, however, differs from ours; in particular, they have never experienced the degree of individual liberty that Americans have long enjoyed and taken for granted. A great conservative fear at the time of the passage of Obamacare was that Americans could be lured into the same servile attitude towards the government.
When wondering how much government intervention American voters will tolerate, one is led to ask to what extent voters accept government impositions simply because they are advocated by their 'team' (i.e. political party)? In the same vein, as most of us ask as soon as we become politically aware, why are attitudes toward homosexuality, immigration, carbonophobia, class warfare, etc. linked? Presumably people choose their positions on issues based on their party affiliation at least as often as they choose their party affiliation based on their stands on issues. Perhaps the rise of the unaffiliated voter is important to consider in this context. As government reach expands, political parties must take stands on an ever wider variety of issues. Perhaps it is becoming ever harder for many Americans to affiliate with either major party; there are simply too many axes of potential disagreement. Unfortunately, opting out is a poor choice. The unaffiliated have little impact at the primary level; so, they share responsibility - through inaction - for the poor choices we often face in general elections. Once again I am led to appreciate the increased voter participation represented by the rise of the Tea Party movement. If the Tea Partiers are successful in rolling back government overreach (admittedly a long term project), then an amusing consequence could be a rise in voter identification with both parties. When the Republicans and Democrats no longer need to take stands on whether it is better to allow a hip replacement at age 70 instead of state of the art cancer drugs at age 75, it will be easier for voters to find a party with which he has no deal breaking disagreements.
Monday, October 11, 2010
"Let all things be done decently and in order."
Both Democrats and Republicans exhibit peculiarities in their candidate selection. Democrats have strong servile tendencies. They like to elect aristocrats, and they refer to their elected representatives as 'rulers'. With the name Kennedy, any charlatan is eligible for Democratic nomination to high office. The Bush dynasty shows the GOP shares this tendency to a lesser degree. The Democrats swoon for their candidates; their candidates "make their knees weak." Before the Tea Party, on the other hand, the GOP often seemed to regard nominations as a reward for services rendered; there almost seemed to be a queue, with candidates 'entitled' to the nomination, simply because they were, by some measure, next in line. How else can you explain nominating candidates like Bob Dole or John McCain, who seemed embarrassed by political principles?
Perhaps the 'reward for services rendered' interpretation was naive. As I became more active in the local GOP this year, I learned to appreciate the great power of name recognition in seeking support from an often uninterested electorate. Perhaps the 'next in line' were simply the best known.
The rise of the Tea Party promised an overthrow of the queue. In primary after primary, the 'entitled' GOP candidates were rejected. Unfortunately, in my county GOP, I have witnessed precisely the entitlement mentality that I had naively speculated was the source of Bob Dolian candidates. An important function of our county organization is to endorse candidates in nonpartisan races. In one nonpartisan race we considered recently, we had two Republicans competing. Our evaluation committee reported that one candidate had previously held the position, but was removed from office after committing a criminal offense. The other candidate was new to politics but boasted the sort of business and professional background which usually appeals to GOP voters. I was the only vote opposing the candidate with the criminal background. His appeal? He had more experience.
It was uncharitable to hold his prior offenses against him. I was unaware that the county GOP was a charity. I was appalled. After the meeting was over, I realized that not only were we rejecting a promising new candidate, but that our endorsement of the criminal could potentially cast doubt on all our endorsements of strong candidates. What happens to our credibility when a careful voter sees that we recommend criminals?
I felt culpable afterwards for failing to successfully convince my fellow Republicans. I have learned that the manner of argument suitable for faculty debate is not very successful in political forums. Oh well, maybe next time.
Perhaps the 'reward for services rendered' interpretation was naive. As I became more active in the local GOP this year, I learned to appreciate the great power of name recognition in seeking support from an often uninterested electorate. Perhaps the 'next in line' were simply the best known.
The rise of the Tea Party promised an overthrow of the queue. In primary after primary, the 'entitled' GOP candidates were rejected. Unfortunately, in my county GOP, I have witnessed precisely the entitlement mentality that I had naively speculated was the source of Bob Dolian candidates. An important function of our county organization is to endorse candidates in nonpartisan races. In one nonpartisan race we considered recently, we had two Republicans competing. Our evaluation committee reported that one candidate had previously held the position, but was removed from office after committing a criminal offense. The other candidate was new to politics but boasted the sort of business and professional background which usually appeals to GOP voters. I was the only vote opposing the candidate with the criminal background. His appeal? He had more experience.
It was uncharitable to hold his prior offenses against him. I was unaware that the county GOP was a charity. I was appalled. After the meeting was over, I realized that not only were we rejecting a promising new candidate, but that our endorsement of the criminal could potentially cast doubt on all our endorsements of strong candidates. What happens to our credibility when a careful voter sees that we recommend criminals?
I felt culpable afterwards for failing to successfully convince my fellow Republicans. I have learned that the manner of argument suitable for faculty debate is not very successful in political forums. Oh well, maybe next time.
Sunday, October 3, 2010
Crypto vouchers and For-Profit Colleges
This weekend I had so many deadlines piling up on me that I decided it was the optimal time to research the for-profit colleges, which have been crowding the educational policy sector of the blogosphere of late. Many conservatives and libertarians, while deploring the distortions caused by government funding of (for-profit and traditional) college education, express an interest in the for-profit education sector - an interest which I suspect is nurtured by their distaste for the liberal academics dominating traditional universities.
I had no prior knowledge of for-profit colleges other than the emails they occasionally send me asking me to recommend potential math faculty to them. My biases are what you might expect - I assumed that these were just diploma mills providing little or no education. My research topic was : what does a math major look like at a for-profit? My research tools went no further than Google. I only looked at a few of the larger for-profits, such as Phoenix and DeVry.
My first discovery was that the larger for-profits I examined are amazingly opaque. You cannot find the lists of courses readily available on traditional universities' web sites. Faculty lists at Phoenix are arranged by college rather than by department, meaning you have to sift through a data dump, if you want to determine who teaches math. Even finding what math courses they offer is difficult. Every query on their website seems to offer different answers. I felt like an accountant hired to assess Enron. The only consistent answer to my queries was : every math course I found was no higher than the level of courses offered by a large public high school; the descriptions sounded lower level than what you would find at a good public high school. Conclusion: within my area of expertise and my narrow investigation, these schools are essentially high schools.
This discovery puts the discussion of government funding of for-profit education in a rather different light. We should really view it as a vast federal government experiment in educational vouchers for private high schools. I have long advocated state funding for voucher programs; federal funding is perhaps constitutional overreach. I think this program, if continued, would be greatly improved if it was extended to all private high schools, and not restricted to those labelling themselves as universities. This would allow students to use the tuition money to obtain an excellent education before college.
(My apologies to all those for-profit colleges of higher quality than the handful I probed.)
I had no prior knowledge of for-profit colleges other than the emails they occasionally send me asking me to recommend potential math faculty to them. My biases are what you might expect - I assumed that these were just diploma mills providing little or no education. My research topic was : what does a math major look like at a for-profit? My research tools went no further than Google. I only looked at a few of the larger for-profits, such as Phoenix and DeVry.
My first discovery was that the larger for-profits I examined are amazingly opaque. You cannot find the lists of courses readily available on traditional universities' web sites. Faculty lists at Phoenix are arranged by college rather than by department, meaning you have to sift through a data dump, if you want to determine who teaches math. Even finding what math courses they offer is difficult. Every query on their website seems to offer different answers. I felt like an accountant hired to assess Enron. The only consistent answer to my queries was : every math course I found was no higher than the level of courses offered by a large public high school; the descriptions sounded lower level than what you would find at a good public high school. Conclusion: within my area of expertise and my narrow investigation, these schools are essentially high schools.
This discovery puts the discussion of government funding of for-profit education in a rather different light. We should really view it as a vast federal government experiment in educational vouchers for private high schools. I have long advocated state funding for voucher programs; federal funding is perhaps constitutional overreach. I think this program, if continued, would be greatly improved if it was extended to all private high schools, and not restricted to those labelling themselves as universities. This would allow students to use the tuition money to obtain an excellent education before college.
(My apologies to all those for-profit colleges of higher quality than the handful I probed.)
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)